What went wrong in China ?

The news today is totally dominated by talk of the coronavirus pandemic, with occasional relief provided by the weather report. Little effort is made to review how we got here, or what to do about it.

For decades, Western academics, policy makers, captains of industry, and politicians assumed that China’s embrace of capitalist economic policies would set the stage for democratic reform. George Orwell was right when he said: “Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them, for no ordinary man could be such a fool.”

Put in simple terms, the theory was that economic freedoms would cause the Chinese people to begin to demand political freedom, resulting in a democracy. That has not happened in China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains firmly in power.

China has been ruled by the CCP since 1949. The regime doesn’t tolerate political competitors. It is authoritarian, an all or nothing proposition. Its goal is to control all aspects of public and private life. It controls the army, the courts, the police, the media, and the economy.

The Chinese people are merely the state’s subjects. Just consider the CCP’s version of Soviet gulags, called reeducation centers, where up to a million Muslims have been incarcerated. Student-led pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong show that millions of Chinese people want to be free of the party’s yoke.

Calling out the CCP and their role in the COVID-19 pandemic is not racist. It began in China and could have been stopped at its source. But the CCP lied about this deadly virus, which cost the rest of the world many weeks of preparation, countless lives, and forced shutdowns of the American and other world economies.

No year in recent history has brought such devastation. As of April 26, there are over 202,000 deaths around the world and over 55,000 in the United States from COVID-19, according to numbers compiled by the Johns Hopkins University. People worldwide are struggling to get comfortable with the uncomfortable realities of a new normal.

The US and other countries face a Sophie’s choice: They cannot directly attack the CCP over the pandemic and its role in triggering an unparalleled global economic and public health crisis, nor hold it accountable for the COVID-19 outbreak when the world depends upon the CCP for medical supplies and protective equipment. Name-calling and demands for reparations come out of Washington, but the harsh reality is that payback is not in the cards. The CCP’s list of transgressions may be long and shameful, but the US is dependent on them for life-saving exports.

The economic downturn is a completely artificial event and any economic rebound will depend on when the public health containment policy ends and a safe and scalable vaccine is developed. The longer pandemic containment lasts, the more parts of the economy deteriorate. Truth is, the economic pain will continue into the foreseeable future.

Congress and the White House may put together another economic relief package that they will characterize as a stimulus package similar to the CARES legislation. This is a misnomer, for much of the $2.2 trillion CARES act simply made up for lost wages; it won’t generate additional spending. Politicians in Washington will be out campaigning this summer rather than engaging in serious discussions about how to decouple essential supplies coming from China.

A modest start would be to slap “buy American” provisions on government agencies and provide tax incentives for American companies to bring back their supply chain to the US or American allies. Notions about introducing legislation to allow Americans to sue China in domestic courts to “recover damages for death, injury, and economic harm caused” by the CCP’s reckless response to the COVID-19 outbreak will simply result in the party giving the middle finger to any adverse judgments, just as they do to other international institutions.

The CCP plays by its own rules.

China is a global threat to human rights

The outbreak of the Chinese Communist Party virus has accelerated the need for the United States and others to reset the relationship with this autocratic crowd that rules by repression rather than consent. For too long America and others have become economically dependent on the Chinese Communist Party’s totalitarian regime. Governments, corporations and even academic institutions that are ostensibly committed to human rights have been all too happy to do business with the Chinese Communist Party.

China is a global threat to human rights. Witness its terrible repression and systematic abuse of the Uighur Muslims, Christians, Falun Gong, Tibetan Buddhists, and the protesters in Hong Kong. The Chinese Communist Party has carried out arbitrary detention, torture, and imposed pervasive controls on daily life.

The Chinese Communist Party has constructed an Orwellian high-tech surveillance state to monitor and suppress criticism and free speech over China. It engages in these practices with total disregard of the world’s view of these abuses and uses its economic clout to silence critics. Economic clout translates into political influence.

Indeed, the Chinese Communist Party’s campaign to aggressively silence criticism extends beyond its borders. Last year the party responded to a simple tweet by the general manager of the Houston Rockets supporting the Hong Kong protesters by demanding he be fired and by canceling broadcasts of N.B.A. games. After a series of obsequious apologies, the N.B.A. stood firm.

Also last year, the Chinese Communist Party demanded that foreign airlines remove references to Taiwan from their websites because it regards Taiwan as a renegade province. The four American airlines affected by the order – American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United – complied with the order. Clearly, they were ignorant of Churchill’s definition of appeasement: “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last”.

In 2017, the Chinese Communist Party pressured the Cambridge University Press to remove more than 300 articles from its “China Quarterly” journal. The censored articles covered topics the Chinese Communist Party considered incriminating, such as the Tiananmen Square massacre, a subject that remains taboo in China.

In April and May of 1989 thousands of students and civilians protested in Tiananmen Square in the heart of Beijing, calling for a more democratic government. The Chinese Communist Party prohibited foreign newscasts of the protests.

On June 3 and 4, Chinese troops entered the square and fired on the protestors, ending the demonstrations. Estimates of the death toll range from several hundred to thousands. It has been estimated that 10,000 people were arrested during and after the protests. If the protestors had hoped the United States and other countries that had rhetorically championed the universal human right to freedom would support them, they were sorely disappointed.

Though President George H. W. Bush initially criticized the crackdown and announced some sanctions, nothing else happened. The Bush administration believed that as the West opened up to China and the country became more prosperous it would also become more democratic. Is anyone surprised that they were wrong?

The authoritarian regime of the Chinese Communist Party is not a friend. The global pandemic could have been stopped at its source. Instead, the Chinese Communist Party suppressed the truth, destroyed evidence, and lied to the world.

It’s not surprising that the Chinese Communist Party lied to the world. If it is willing to lie to its own citizens about how many the virus killed, why would you ever assume that it would tell the world the truth? If they don’t treat their own people with respect, why would anyone believe they would treat others differently? Put another way, if the Chinese Communist Party has its way, it is not just China’s 1.4 billion people who won’t get justice – it will be the whole world.

It is an open question whether the international community and the United States will make common cause and robustly respond to the Chinese Communist Party’s role in unleashing the coronavirus. But given the Chinese Communist Party’s dishonesty and duplicity, now is the time to recall President Reagan’s famous formula when dealing with the Soviet Union: “Trust but verify.

The U.S. should reconsider its relationship with the CCP

America is in crisis. In the midst of a pandemic, society is locked down, the economy is stalled and the death count mounts. As of March 30, three-quarters of Americans were living under stay at home mandates or advisories in the fight against the spread of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus.

Americans are buying all the food and supplies they can find and downloading Zoom, everyone’s new favorite hangout. One of the ironies of the moment is that staying home and doing nothing with freshly sanitized hands can actually save lives. Americans are told to work together to flatten the curve, and practice social distancing, altering the rhythms and texture of everyday life.

A sense of anxiety and fragility is everywhere.

The economic fallout has been swift and dramatic. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent in March from 3.5 percent in February, the largest one month increase since January 1975. The economy lost 701,000 jobs in March, but the numbers only begin to capture the beginning of a job market collapse. Weekly initial jobless claims reports reveal nearly 10 million new unemployment insurance claims in just the last two weeks of March.

These numbers are a coming attraction for what is to come, thanks to our pals in the CCP and the business, political, and academic grandees who encouraged offshoring American jobs to China. The increased reliance on worldwide production and long supply chains has undermined America’s national security.

This crowd traded American industrial strength and technology for access to China’s huge market and cheap consumer goods. The price they were willing to pay was teaching China how to manufacture their products and sharing their cutting–edge intellectual property, which helped China join the superpower club. The CCP has been brilliant in exploiting the imprudent greed, myopia, and corporate vanity of western business leaders who kowtow before the CCP regime.

It is not certain whether Vladmir Ilyich Ulyanov, better known as Lenin, actually said: “The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” But if he didn’t, he certainly thought it, and if he were still around, he would likely claim the prophecy as his own. The ruling class in Washington, Wall Street, and the academy sent the CCP the money to buy the rope.

The board overseas the nearly $600 billion Thrift Savings Plan, a retirement savings plan similar to a 401(k), for 5.6 million federal employees and members of the military. The index fund includes companies involved in the Chinese government’s military activities and companies being sanctioned by the US government. To cite one specific example, the index includes China’s state -owned Aviation Industry Corporation. This firm is the sole supplier of military aircraft to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Federal employee money is being used to support an adversary, undermining the country’s national security and fueling China’s economic growth.

A group of lawmakers introduced bipartisan, bicameral legislation to ban the investment of Thrift Savings Plan funds in securities listed on mainland China exchanges. Pushing back, the board’s general counsel said that the 1986 legislation that created the plan shows the accounts are private, not federal property.

“The employees owns it and it cannot be tampered with by any entity including Congress,” the general counsel went on to say, neglecting to mention the fund consists of taxpayer money, not private capital.

This decision is another egregious example of an organization facing no consequences for refusing to act in the best interests of the United States and never having to say you are sorry. It’s bad for the United States and good for a strategic foreign adversary.

The Chinese Communist Party propaganda campaign

The deadly virus that is eating the world is postmarked “Chinese Communist Party” (CCP), and it has already caused more disruption than the financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing Great Recession.

The CCP virus is threatening lives and economies all over the globe. Social distancing and sheltering in place are necessary to slow the spread of the novel pathogen, but they also make a sharp slowdown in economic activity inevitable.

As the global economy craters, the gap between the haves and have-nots is accentuated, as the well heeled pack their bags and escape to safer locations such as the Hamptons and Palm Beach. The limitless resources of the 1 percent ensure they will never go hungry or lack for medical care, even in a pandemic.

In the meantime, ordinary people are panic buying, standing in long lines to stock up on toilet paper, facing financial instability and trying to make ends meet while being told we are all in this together. Mostly, they remain sequestered at home, apart from the occasional pilgrimage to the grocery store, pharmacy, or package store. The CCP virus has crushed the economy and shut down much of American life.

March 19 was the first day on which the CCP reported no new locally transmitted cases of the pathogen since the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan. The CCP congratulates itself on its extraordinary containment measures, limiting the movement of millions of people, and rapid medical response. Will wonders never cease?

The CCP is working hard to scrub its own culpability and turn this crisis into an opportunity. Its leader Xi Jinping now acts as the charitable godfather, dishing out money, medical supplies and equipment to convince the world they are not responsible for the global public health crisis and economic chaos.

The CCP is painting China as a success story and as a friend in a time of dire need. This was after the CCP spread disinformation about the virus, claiming that American soldiers brought the virus to Wuhan last October when they attended the Military World Games. There is no evidence to support this accusation. The CCP is engaged in a massive propaganda campaign to persuade the world they are a model global citizen worthy of trust and respect.

As they say in the Wuhan wet market, famous for its bat soup, this doesn’t smell right.

In the past few weeks, while the rest of the world was busy battling the pandemic, the CCP erected new military bases on reefs in the West Philippine Sea that are claimed by the Philippines, according to Esquire Magazine. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, an intergovernmental organization located at The Hague in the Netherlands ruled unanimously that the CCP’s reclamation activities in the West Philippine Sea were illegal. The Court recognized the Philippines sovereign rights to the contested areas. China ignored the ruling, continues aggressive actions, and stands by its sweeping claim to almost the entire South China Sea.

The CCP plays by its own rules and does so with impunity. A March 20 report by China’s Zinhua news website says the Chinese Academy of Sciences has successfully established two new “research facilities” on the Kagitingan Reef and the Zamora Reef. According to the Zinhua report, these “research facilities” are to study coral reef ecosystems, vegetation ecology, and freshwater conservation.

Of course, these reclaimed islands are equipped with military facilities, including missile systems, naval harbors, and runways to accommodate fighter jets and other aircraft. The CCP is hoping the world will overlook the military angle as it focuses on the global public health crisis.

While the short-term focus is the battle against the coronavirus, the international community should not ignore the existential threat presented by the CCP. This global crisis will last a long time, but not forever. Democratic governments must fundamentally rethink their relationship with the CCP and stop treating them with kid gloves.

Selling America’s security to China

Earlier this year, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, or Covid-19, a public health emergency of global concern. The outbreak should also prompt U.S. leaders to ask some hard questions about pharmaceutical companies’ practice of outsourcing their manufacturing to China.

Coronaviruses infect animal cells. They circulate among animals, and some are known to infect humans. This one was first detected in the City of Wuhan in the “People’s Republic of China.”

It has since spread around the world. The long-term effects of the outbreak are unknown, but it has already brought devastating consequences for individuals, families, communities, and businesses far beyond China.

In addition to the immeasurable social and health impact, the spread of the virus has already affected business and economic activity, global financial markets and supply chains. A global recession is imminent.

The Chinese government has leverage over America’s economy and public health, as it has captured critical portions of global supply chains, including pharmaceutical drugs and medical equipment, without firing a shot.

According to the WHO, the Chinese knew of the “Wuhan virus” as early as Dec. 8, 2019. Yet disclosure to the WHO did not take place until around Jan. 11, 2020. This is typical when dealing with the Chinese government.

In 2002 a coronavirus had emerged in a similar wet market – where live animals are slaughtered and sold for human consumption – in Southern China. When the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak hit in 2003, the Communist Party again concealed it from the Chinese people and the world until it was a full-blown epidemic.

The Wuhan market is also a wet market. These wild animals are believed to have tonic properties and are used for body- building, sexual enhancement, and fighting disease.

The United States depends on China for pharmaceutical products. A Department of Commerce study found that over 90 percent of all antibiotics in the United States come from China.

While depending on China for thousands of ingredients and raw materials for medicine is a security issue, Americans should also be concerned about the safety and efficacy of Chinese-made pharmaceuticals. As recently as the summer of 2018, one of China’s domestic vaccine makers sold at least 250,000 substandard doses for diphtheria, tetanus, and whooping cough. This instance was just the latest in a slew of scandals caused by low-quality Chinese drug products.

The time is long past to press pharmaceutical companies to bring manufacturing back to the United States. A nation’s first priority is to protect itself. Public health is as essential as military preparedness and economic health. Government must intervene to protect industries that are deemed vital to national security, such as telecommunications, aerospace, and yes, pharmaceuticals. Health care is a non-discretionary good.

The Chinese virus epidemic is a wake-up call that should make Americans ask some hard questions. How is national security defined? Does it only apply to military security or does it encompass industries that produce the technologies needed to ensure that the country remains economically competitive? Does domestic ownership make a difference in a world where national borders are receding in importance?

And when it comes to pharmaceuticals, can the United States survive without a safe, reliable supply? Does it make sense to depend upon foreign governments and companies to supply these products? What if China decides to stop exporting drugs to America?

Is the U.S. government really powerless to stop pharmaceutical companies from outsourcing drug manufacturing to save money and increase profits? The cold reality is that the government is loath to confront China because multinational corporations and Wall Street are the winners in a global system that has seen America hand China its industrial base – good jobs, intellectual property and global standing in exchange for alleged market access and cheap labor.

Failure to address these questions makes the ordinary American wonder if our current crop of political leaders could run a bath.

Afghanistan: another mission failure

More than 18 years since President George W. Bush ordered bombing in response to the 9/11 attacks, America’s “forever war” in Afghanistan may finally be nearing an end. The United States signed a dicey deal with the Taliban on February 29 amid upbeat rhetoric to end the war and lead to the withdrawal of American forces.

The peace is fragile. To make it work, the Taliban and the Afghan government negotiate the political terms for ending the war and sharing power.

Afghanistan is but one of a string of dicey foreign entanglements that mark U.S. policy since the end of the Cold War America’s longest war came at a tremendous cost of blood and treasure. By the numbers, it claimed the lives of more than 2,300 American soldiers, and 20,000 more have been injured. Tens of thousands of Afghans have been killed. It has cost U.S. taxpayers $2 trillion, according to Brown University’s Cost of War Project.

Since the disappearance of the existential threat of a nuclear-armed Soviet Union in 1991, the United States has indulged a missionary calling to remake the world in its image. It has ranged far and wide to export American values: Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and the beat goes on.

In the decades before the Cold War ended, the United States used its military and economic power to defend American interests at home and abroad. America’s desire to remake the world in its image was held in check by the existence of a powerful geopolitical rival: The Soviet Union.

When the fall of the Berlin Wall ended the Cold War, the American political establishment believed it had prevailed in a cosmic struggle with communism. The United States could bask in its new role as the world’s sole superpower. It was perched at the pinnacle of power.

History had validated American-style liberal democratic capitalism. Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued that humanity had reached its final stage: liberal capitalist democracy. The world was witnessing the End of History. He predicted that unipolar American influence would bring lasting world peace. The U.S. had no major existential threats and everything seemed possible. The future looked bright.

This was a seismic event, yet there was no debate about America’s role in world affairs. Instead, the United States under three presidents chose to pursue a policy of promoting American values as universal values, what some have described as “missionary work” or, alternatively, “nation building” – using American power to reshape domestic institutions in foreign lands, regardless of whether American interests were at stake.

This foreign policy shift was embraced by both political parties. The post-Cold War presidencies of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama wandered into well-intentioned but clueless adventures in nation building, most of which have turned out badly. Elites had their heads up their hindquarters.

But it was in Afghanistan and Iraq that the notion of nation building became the ultimate policy objective. The Bush crowd, with extravagant hubris and ignorant of local conditions, thought that such transformations were feasible with limited resources. The United States failed to achieve a decisive victory in either war.

It is ironic that because the United States is so powerful and intrinsically secure, it has the freedom to wander around the world intruding in various places. The outcomes don’t have a decisive impact on American security, even if things go as badly as in the Vietnam debacle.

But the emergence of China as a global superpower and the reemergence of Russia have put an end to that post-Cold War world. Truth be told, the United States no longer has the power to make unilateral changes in other political cultures.

On the other hand, Americans can take comfort in the German statesman Otto Bismarck’s reputed comment that “There appears to be a special providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States of America.” Hopefully that is true.

Big business dominates the American

As demonstrated by the current presidential campaign, Americans live in an age of hostility toward economic power being concentrated in a few big firms. The breakup of big tech, big pharma, big banks, and firms in other industries such as airlines, beer, and hospitals may get a lot of media coverage, but the public shouldn’t bet on seeing much really change.

Candidates on the left sermonize that it is time to take a fresh look at antitrust laws that have not gotten much attention for the last 40 years, with the exception of the Microsoft case in the late 1990s. They want to smack down companies that have gotten too big, too powerful and make it harder for entrepreneurs to build the next Google or Facebook. The candidates argue that the U.S. economy has grown more concentrated since the early 1990s, with the spoils going to a select few in each industry.

They’re right. Beyond all the left-wing piety, American industry is increasingly dominated by a shrinking handful of giant companies.

For example, the top four domestic airlines collected 41 percent of the industry’s revenue 10 years ago; today they collect 65 percent. It’s the same story in the beer industry, where four firms control nearly 90 percent of the market despite the proliferation of craft brewers. Even in the poultry industry, Tyson’s, Pilgrim’s Pride, and Perdue all but control U.S. production. And three major drug store chains – Walgreens, CVS Health, and Rite Aid – dominate that industry.

Facebook has acquired 67 firms and Amazon 91 firms – some of which were rising, young competitors – without being challenged by regulators. And the number of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange fell by half between 1996 and 2016. The dominant players believe that if they are to succeed, they must shore up economies of scale and erect high barriers to entry to scare off potential competitors and lock up new markets.

A handful of politicians, policy advisors, and economists contend that unrestricted concentration in certain industries is a threat to a functioning democracy. This is a fancy way of saying that the United States has massive income inequality, with the top 1 percent earning 23.8 percent of the national income and controlling 38.6 percent of national wealth. For political candidates on the left, this intensifies their meliorism and arguments that a structural dismantling of this concentrated power is necessary.

In general, Washington politicians have failed to take steps to make markets more competitive, allowing superstar companies to become even more powerful. Sure, retirement accounts do OK, but wages and the economy suffer as a result of decreasing competition.

None of this is new, it’s just been forgotten. Regulating market concentration has been a leitmotif in American history, starting with passage of the nation’s first antitrust law, the Sherman Act of 1890. Later, President Theodore Roosevelt led the effort to break up the Standard Oil Company’s monopoly, and up through the 1960s many mergers were routinely challenged.

Fast forward to the 1970s, when University of Chicago scholars argued that the Sherman Act was to protect consumers from high prices, not preserve competition by protecting small businesses from big ones. They claimed that large companies contribute to economic efficiency and innovation, and government should cut back on antitrust enforcement. In effect, get government off the back of American industry.

They won the day. Other than Microsoft, antitrust enforcement on big companies has been essentially dormant for the last 40 years.

It may be time to take a fresh look at the enforcement of antitrust law – especially big tech companies. But don’t hold your breath. Big corporations spend tens of millions of dollars every year to push their objectives. According to the Center for Responsible Politics, Facebook spent $12,120,000 on lobbying in 2018 and Amazon spent $14,400,000.

Former California political power broker Jesse M. Unruh was indeed right when he said, “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.”

A Day That Should Live In Infamy

Editor’s note: This was first published in The Patriot Ledger Dec. 5, 2014.

Early in 1941, the government of resource-poor Japan realized that it needed to seize control of the petroleum and other raw material sources in the Dutch East Indies, French Indochina and the Malay Peninsula. Doing that would require neutralizing the threat posed by the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet based at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii.

The government assigned this task to the Imperial Navy, whose combined fleet was headed by Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto. The Imperial Navy had two strategic alternatives for neutralizing the U.S. Pacific Fleet. One was to cripple the fleet itself through a direct attack on its warships, or cripple Pearl Harbor’s ability to function as the fleet’s forward base in the Pacific.

Crippling the U.S. fleet would require disabling the eight battleships that made up the fleet’s traditional battle line. It was quite a tall order.

The most effective way to cripple Pearl Harbor’s ability to function as a naval base would be to destroy its fuel storage and ship repair facilities. Without them, the Pacific Fleet would have to return to the U.S., where it could no longer deter Japanese military expansion in the region during the year or so it would take to rebuild Pearl Harbor.

It soon became apparent that the basics of either strategy could be carried out through a surprise air raid launched from the Imperial Navy’s six first-line aircraft carriers. Admiral Yamamoto had a reputation as an expert poker player, gained during his years of study at Harvard and as an Imperial Navy naval attaché in Washington. He decided to attack the U.S. warships that were moored each weekend in Pearl Harbor. But in this case the expert poker player picked the wrong target.

The Imperial Navy’s model for everything it did was the British Royal Navy. Standard histories of the Royal Navy emphasized its victories in spectacular naval battles.

Lost in the shuffle was any serious consideration of trying to cripple Pearl Harbor’s ability to function as a forward naval base. So it was that, in one of history’s finest displays of tactical management, six of the world’s best aircraft carriers furtively approached the Hawaiian Islands from the north just before dawn that fateful Sunday, Dec. 7, 1941, launched their planes into the rising sun, caught the U.S. Pacific Fleet with its pants down and wrought havoc in spectacular fashion. On paper at least, this rivaled the British Royal Navy’s triumph at Trafalgar.

But so what?

The American battleships at Pearl Harbor were slow-moving antiques from the World War I era. As we know, the U.S. Navy already had two brand new battleships in its Atlantic Fleet that could run rings around them. And eight new ones the navy was building were even better.

More importantly, the Pacific Fleet’s three aircraft carriers weren’t at Pearl Harbor. American shipyards were already building 10 modern carriers whose planes would later devastate Imperial Navy forces in the air/sea battles of the Philippine Sea and Leyte Gulf.

Most importantly, as the sun set on Dec. 7 and the U.S. Navy gathered the bodies of its 2,117 sailors and Marines killed that day, all-important fuel storage and ship repair facilities remained untouched by Japanese bombs, allowing Pearl Harbor to continue as a forward base for American naval power in the Pacific.

So in reality, Dec. 7 marked the sunset of Japan’s extravagant ambitions to dominate Asia. Admiral Yamamoto and the Imperial Navy’s other tradition-bound leaders chose the wrong targets at Pearl Harbor.

The dictates of tradition are usually the worst guides to follow when it comes doing anything really important. After all, if they survived long enough to be venerated, they’re probably obsolete.

China: America’s Greatest Threat

The United States has gotten China wrong for the better part of four decades. Politicians, policy makers, academics, businessmen, and others naïvely assumed that China’s communist totalitarian system would evolve toward democracy and freedom. These elites did not understand that engaging with the 94 million-member Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is like having unprotected sex.

It is only recently that those who control the commanding heights in the United States have given due regard to the reality that CCP-controlled China, which regards democracy as an existential threat, is a menace to American’s security and prosperity. The reasons why are apparent from China’s activities in the South China Sea.

If there is to be a great power military conflict in the future, it will most likely involve a rising China challenging a predominant America. The list of China’s strategic initiatives is lengthy; everything from becoming a world leader in science and technology to economics and business to military might. The U.S. now faces a rising power, a confident, ambitious country that wants to supplant America’s role as the current global hegemon.

This goal is demonstrated by China’s actions in the South China Sea, which is strategically important to China’s goals and is one of the battlefields on which the competition between China and the United States will play out.

The South China Sea is a part of the western Pacific Ocean and borders southern China, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. More than $5 trillion in trade flows through it, roughly 30 percent of all global maritime trade. A major shipping route, the sea also accounts for about 10 percent of the world’s fisheries and a potentially significant amount of oil and natural gas deposits.

As the region’s link between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the South China Sea is a vital trading and military route for the countries that surround it as well as for larger Asian economic powers, including Japan and South Korea. The country that controls the South China Sea has a strategic advantage in the region and a huge influence over global seaborne trade.

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CCP, claims all of the South China Sea — lock, stock, and oil barrel — as sovereign territory. He backs up his claims by building aggressive military installations on existing islands, dredging new islands out of the sea itself and building airfields, “missile defense systems” and harbors that are essentially naval bases.

China bases its claims to the South China Sea on historical records from the Zia and Han dynasties that are thousands of years old. It is unlikely that Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea will stand by while China exploits them. The United States, as an ally of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, could be drawn into disputes surrounding these claims. It is worth noting that actions by China’s maritime forces aimed at the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are another area of concern.

Following an appeal by the Philippines that China’s actions violated the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in 2016 that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights, while also finding that there had been several violations of the obligations set out in the Convention.

China refused to accept the court’s ruling and has continued militarization of the artificial islands with impunity. This is an expression of China’s newfound military and political power and its might-makes-right approach to international affairs. China’s expansion in the South China Sea is equivalent to Russia’s annexation of the Crimea in 2014.

America should not try to contain China unilaterally, but rather assemble a broad coalition with nations including India, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines to confront, resist, and sanction China in the same way as it partnered with NATO and others to contain the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Politicians’ Contempt For The Truth

Russell Baker, the Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist, said in his memoir that covering Washington was just a matter of sitting in grand marble halls waiting for someone ever more important to come out and lie to you. One could easily make the case that this happens with considerable regularity in state houses and city halls throughout America.

If people think politicians can get ahead without untruths, they’re lying to themselves. Politicians have always had a distant relationship with the truth. They have always lied, are constantly lying, and will always lie. It no longer matters if statements have any basis in reality. Get over it.

Some political lies can lead to unnecessary war. Still others conceal illegal behavior. What matters is firing up your supporters and getting reelected. They promise heaven on earth, and when they can’t deliver, they spin, evade, manipulate the numbers and knowingly engage in falsehoods.

President Trump’s self-serving whoppers are overwhelming and are memorably labeled as B.S. The President’s body of falsehoods is singular in its multiplicity. He may be an outlier, but he is hardly unique in deliberately saying something untrue. The truth about lies is that politicians have always told them. Of course, the exception being America’s first President, George Washington. He could not tell a lie, unlike most politicians who cannot tell the truth.

Trump is not the only one lying. Recall a number of prominent presidential lies. Some are as egregious, such as when President Obama told the American public over and over that “if you like your health care plan you can keep it.” Better still, the many falsehoods President George W. Bush told in the run-up to the Iraq war, which were very damaging to the United States. Or when President Clinton shamelessly said in 1998, “I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky.”

Then there was President George H. W. Bush’s “Read my lips, no new taxes.” And of course, “People have got to know whether or not their President’s a crook. Well, I’m not a crook” by President Richard Nixon. Truth tellers in politics are an endangered species. Polling data shows politicians among the least trusted actors in society.

But do the American people care about the veracity of what politicians say. Or do they simply want to hear “their truth”? People have a tendency to view information familiar to them as the truth and search for other information that reinforces their beliefs. Daniel Kahneman, psychologist and winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, calls it “cognitive bias” – we tend to avoid those facts that force their brains to work more.

People live in their own social network bubble in the digital world. They go on the internet to search for information that confirms their convictions. They know more but understand less, dividing into hostile tribes. They see the world as a battle between left and right, each living in separate worlds.

They fish in different information streams. Politicized media outlets and online social networks put out completely different representations of the truth. Extreme partisanship is not a new problem. George Washington warned about the dangers of it in his Farewell Address in September 1796.

With social media, lies have the capacity to spread faster than ever before. It is a cheap and easy way to disrupt political discourse. After all, birds of a feather flock together. These days, anybody with a Twitter account can throw spaghetti at the wall and see if it sticks and for how long.

You would be right to conclude that Machiavelli would, with a few exceptions, have a lot to learn from public figures in the age of post-truth politics. The country is beset with tribalism, having forgotten the American forefathers’ motto “E pluribus unum,” which is imprinted on every coin in hopes of avoiding the United States becoming a nation of immigrants divided into tribes.