A strategy for dealing with China

On Feb. 22, 1946, George Kennan, U.S. Chief of Mission in Moscow, sent the State Department a long telegram explaining the behavior of the Soviet Union and how best to deal with it. The gist of the telegram was that the Soviets, pressed by economic failure and bound by Marxist-Leninist ideology, found a perfect enemy in the United States and were uninterested in compromise.

This being the case, the best way for the U.S. to deal with the Soviet Union was to build up the still-free countries of Western Europe and do all it could to contain Soviet expansion. This policy became known as “containment” and its immediate result was the massive aid program to post-war Western Europe known as the Marshall Plan.

A year later in, writing under the byline “X” in Foreign Affairs, Kennan expanded upon these views. He was a realist who believed international relations ought to be “guided strictly by consideration of national interest,” not treaties and alliances. While often revised, Kennan’s containment strategy would largely define U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union until the end of the Cold War.

Now, more than 70 years later, the U.S. and its allies again face a communist rival that views the United States as an adversary, seeks global influence, and wants to supplant America as the world’s dominant power. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) challenge is generational and cuts across economic, military, political, and social spheres.

The United States is at war. Don’t be deceived because soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army, a branch of the CCP, aren’t running down the street.

While America and the world are in the grip of the made in China COVID-19 pandemic, the CCP has launched a global disinformation campaign reminiscent of the Cold War, blaming others for the spread of the virus. Equally important, it is moving at warp speed as the first major world economy to end lockdowns and start up its economy. The CCP is acting to shape the pandemic narrative and geopolitical shifts in the post-COVID 19 world.

Ever since President Nixon’s opening to China in 1972, the U.S. has largely sought constructive engagement, which would supposedly help democratize China and integrate it into the American-led international economic order. As a “responsible stakeholder” in the international system, China would be highly motivated to maintain peaceful relations with other countries.

The integration strategy has not worked. Nor has the bipartisan support for China’s admission into the World Trade Organization. Recent events confirm that China is challenging the existing international order with impunity.

Look no further than its land reclamation efforts, claiming some 80 percent of the South China Sea as its sovereign territory, challenging Japan’s administrative control of the Senkaku islands, the “One Road, One Belt” new Silk Road Eurasian integration plan, and more.

While the United States has wasted decades in its dealings with the CCP, it is still not too late and George Kennan’s notion of containment remains relevant. The United States strategy should be to preserve and deepen relationships with Asian countries fearful of China’s power and aggressiveness.

China has few allies in the region. The United States should be working closely with India, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines, Australia, Taiwan, and others to contain China, and in the process advance America’s economic, political, and security interests in the Asia Pacific region. Closely related, the U.S. should be forging relationships with developing nations across the globe to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Today, George Kennan’s prescription that “the main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union must be that of a long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies” offers the best hope of containing China’s ambitions. The challenge is that Americans seek instant gratification, while China plays the long game. One thing is certain: Everyone will be feeling their age before this contest is played out.

What went wrong in China ?

The news today is totally dominated by talk of the coronavirus pandemic, with occasional relief provided by the weather report. Little effort is made to review how we got here, or what to do about it.

For decades, Western academics, policy makers, captains of industry, and politicians assumed that China’s embrace of capitalist economic policies would set the stage for democratic reform. George Orwell was right when he said: “Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them, for no ordinary man could be such a fool.”

Put in simple terms, the theory was that economic freedoms would cause the Chinese people to begin to demand political freedom, resulting in a democracy. That has not happened in China, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains firmly in power.

China has been ruled by the CCP since 1949. The regime doesn’t tolerate political competitors. It is authoritarian, an all or nothing proposition. Its goal is to control all aspects of public and private life. It controls the army, the courts, the police, the media, and the economy.

The Chinese people are merely the state’s subjects. Just consider the CCP’s version of Soviet gulags, called reeducation centers, where up to a million Muslims have been incarcerated. Student-led pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong show that millions of Chinese people want to be free of the party’s yoke.

Calling out the CCP and their role in the COVID-19 pandemic is not racist. It began in China and could have been stopped at its source. But the CCP lied about this deadly virus, which cost the rest of the world many weeks of preparation, countless lives, and forced shutdowns of the American and other world economies.

No year in recent history has brought such devastation. As of April 26, there are over 202,000 deaths around the world and over 55,000 in the United States from COVID-19, according to numbers compiled by the Johns Hopkins University. People worldwide are struggling to get comfortable with the uncomfortable realities of a new normal.

The US and other countries face a Sophie’s choice: They cannot directly attack the CCP over the pandemic and its role in triggering an unparalleled global economic and public health crisis, nor hold it accountable for the COVID-19 outbreak when the world depends upon the CCP for medical supplies and protective equipment. Name-calling and demands for reparations come out of Washington, but the harsh reality is that payback is not in the cards. The CCP’s list of transgressions may be long and shameful, but the US is dependent on them for life-saving exports.

The economic downturn is a completely artificial event and any economic rebound will depend on when the public health containment policy ends and a safe and scalable vaccine is developed. The longer pandemic containment lasts, the more parts of the economy deteriorate. Truth is, the economic pain will continue into the foreseeable future.

Congress and the White House may put together another economic relief package that they will characterize as a stimulus package similar to the CARES legislation. This is a misnomer, for much of the $2.2 trillion CARES act simply made up for lost wages; it won’t generate additional spending. Politicians in Washington will be out campaigning this summer rather than engaging in serious discussions about how to decouple essential supplies coming from China.

A modest start would be to slap “buy American” provisions on government agencies and provide tax incentives for American companies to bring back their supply chain to the US or American allies. Notions about introducing legislation to allow Americans to sue China in domestic courts to “recover damages for death, injury, and economic harm caused” by the CCP’s reckless response to the COVID-19 outbreak will simply result in the party giving the middle finger to any adverse judgments, just as they do to other international institutions.

The CCP plays by its own rules.

Lessons from the coronavirus

The United States is in the thick of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus crisis. It leads the world in the number of deaths, with reported cases in all 50 states assuming you believe the numbers coming out of the CCP. Nearly 26 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits, which means millions of people have lost their employer-provided health insurance.

Working class Americans feel like they are living through Daniel Defoe’s Journal of the Plague Year. They are learning to live with uncertainty, constantly practicing hand hygiene and prioritizing needs from wants. The economy has come to a sudden stop, induced into a coma to deal with the public health crisis.

They are living through a disaster movie. It was business as usual until less than two months ago; now it’s business as unusual with virus precautions engulfing nearly every aspect of American life. Their lives now depend on staying home and doing nothing. A lot of thought is put into doing nothing. Even comedy is becoming tiresome – there is nothing to joke about. They are cooped up with no end in sight. It’s difficult not to be paranoid when the sky is falling and the walls of their daily existence are caving in on them and their families.

Of course, the wealthy are in a twist, grappling with the traumas of cancelled golf games and visible roots. While health care employees are working 14-hour days risking everything, Ellen DeGeneres is comparing living in her sprawling mansion to being stuck in jail.

Americans are searching for elected officials willing and able to work together and put aside their partisan bickering in the face of a national crisis. They want authority figures who do not engage in self-aggrandizement and can draw upon their experience to assuage the fears of an anxious country.

There is much Americans don’t know, and much that they think they know is probably wrong, thanks to Chinese Communist Party dissembling. It’s payback time for the globe’s fatal attraction to the CCP and dependency on foreign sources of medical supplies. It may well be that the ordinary working American will be thankful that the peak of globalization will be behind them when the country emerges from this crisis.

A key question is why the country was so utterly unprepared for this crisis. Leave it to history and to a national commission to interrogate this question. But a book published by Barbara W. Tuchman in 1984, The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam, may be a good place to start to answer this question. Tuchman explains how smart people in power can do stupid things. The book illustrates how governments act against their own best interests, making policy mistakes and strategic blunders. A fundamental lesson is that humanity seems unable to learn the lessons of history. In other words, why do countries keep shooting themselves in the foot?

As for history repeating itself, there was a 2019 Pandemic Flu exercise called “Crimson Contagion” run by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services from January to August of 2019. The purpose of the exercise was to simulate the spread of a respiratory virus from China to the United States and killing nearly 586,000 Americans. The results of the exercise were defined by “confusion” and “bureaucratic chaos,” with friction emerging between the state and federal governments on issues ranging from equipment shortages to guidelines for social distancing. Sound familiar?

There’s more. Among the most tangible results of “Crimson Contagion” was an “inability to quickly replenish certain medical supplies, given that much of the product comes from overseas.” The U.S. is paying a high price for being caught so flatfooted and the government is now playing catch up.

Best to recall the words attributed to Winston Churchill: “Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing after they have exhausted all other possibilities.”

China is a global threat to human rights

The outbreak of the Chinese Communist Party virus has accelerated the need for the United States and others to reset the relationship with this autocratic crowd that rules by repression rather than consent. For too long America and others have become economically dependent on the Chinese Communist Party’s totalitarian regime. Governments, corporations and even academic institutions that are ostensibly committed to human rights have been all too happy to do business with the Chinese Communist Party.

China is a global threat to human rights. Witness its terrible repression and systematic abuse of the Uighur Muslims, Christians, Falun Gong, Tibetan Buddhists, and the protesters in Hong Kong. The Chinese Communist Party has carried out arbitrary detention, torture, and imposed pervasive controls on daily life.

The Chinese Communist Party has constructed an Orwellian high-tech surveillance state to monitor and suppress criticism and free speech over China. It engages in these practices with total disregard of the world’s view of these abuses and uses its economic clout to silence critics. Economic clout translates into political influence.

Indeed, the Chinese Communist Party’s campaign to aggressively silence criticism extends beyond its borders. Last year the party responded to a simple tweet by the general manager of the Houston Rockets supporting the Hong Kong protesters by demanding he be fired and by canceling broadcasts of N.B.A. games. After a series of obsequious apologies, the N.B.A. stood firm.

Also last year, the Chinese Communist Party demanded that foreign airlines remove references to Taiwan from their websites because it regards Taiwan as a renegade province. The four American airlines affected by the order – American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United – complied with the order. Clearly, they were ignorant of Churchill’s definition of appeasement: “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile hoping it will eat him last”.

In 2017, the Chinese Communist Party pressured the Cambridge University Press to remove more than 300 articles from its “China Quarterly” journal. The censored articles covered topics the Chinese Communist Party considered incriminating, such as the Tiananmen Square massacre, a subject that remains taboo in China.

In April and May of 1989 thousands of students and civilians protested in Tiananmen Square in the heart of Beijing, calling for a more democratic government. The Chinese Communist Party prohibited foreign newscasts of the protests.

On June 3 and 4, Chinese troops entered the square and fired on the protestors, ending the demonstrations. Estimates of the death toll range from several hundred to thousands. It has been estimated that 10,000 people were arrested during and after the protests. If the protestors had hoped the United States and other countries that had rhetorically championed the universal human right to freedom would support them, they were sorely disappointed.

Though President George H. W. Bush initially criticized the crackdown and announced some sanctions, nothing else happened. The Bush administration believed that as the West opened up to China and the country became more prosperous it would also become more democratic. Is anyone surprised that they were wrong?

The authoritarian regime of the Chinese Communist Party is not a friend. The global pandemic could have been stopped at its source. Instead, the Chinese Communist Party suppressed the truth, destroyed evidence, and lied to the world.

It’s not surprising that the Chinese Communist Party lied to the world. If it is willing to lie to its own citizens about how many the virus killed, why would you ever assume that it would tell the world the truth? If they don’t treat their own people with respect, why would anyone believe they would treat others differently? Put another way, if the Chinese Communist Party has its way, it is not just China’s 1.4 billion people who won’t get justice – it will be the whole world.

It is an open question whether the international community and the United States will make common cause and robustly respond to the Chinese Communist Party’s role in unleashing the coronavirus. But given the Chinese Communist Party’s dishonesty and duplicity, now is the time to recall President Reagan’s famous formula when dealing with the Soviet Union: “Trust but verify.

The U.S. should reconsider its relationship with the CCP

America is in crisis. In the midst of a pandemic, society is locked down, the economy is stalled and the death count mounts. As of March 30, three-quarters of Americans were living under stay at home mandates or advisories in the fight against the spread of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) virus.

Americans are buying all the food and supplies they can find and downloading Zoom, everyone’s new favorite hangout. One of the ironies of the moment is that staying home and doing nothing with freshly sanitized hands can actually save lives. Americans are told to work together to flatten the curve, and practice social distancing, altering the rhythms and texture of everyday life.

A sense of anxiety and fragility is everywhere.

The economic fallout has been swift and dramatic. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.4 percent in March from 3.5 percent in February, the largest one month increase since January 1975. The economy lost 701,000 jobs in March, but the numbers only begin to capture the beginning of a job market collapse. Weekly initial jobless claims reports reveal nearly 10 million new unemployment insurance claims in just the last two weeks of March.

These numbers are a coming attraction for what is to come, thanks to our pals in the CCP and the business, political, and academic grandees who encouraged offshoring American jobs to China. The increased reliance on worldwide production and long supply chains has undermined America’s national security.

This crowd traded American industrial strength and technology for access to China’s huge market and cheap consumer goods. The price they were willing to pay was teaching China how to manufacture their products and sharing their cutting–edge intellectual property, which helped China join the superpower club. The CCP has been brilliant in exploiting the imprudent greed, myopia, and corporate vanity of western business leaders who kowtow before the CCP regime.

It is not certain whether Vladmir Ilyich Ulyanov, better known as Lenin, actually said: “The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.” But if he didn’t, he certainly thought it, and if he were still around, he would likely claim the prophecy as his own. The ruling class in Washington, Wall Street, and the academy sent the CCP the money to buy the rope.

The board overseas the nearly $600 billion Thrift Savings Plan, a retirement savings plan similar to a 401(k), for 5.6 million federal employees and members of the military. The index fund includes companies involved in the Chinese government’s military activities and companies being sanctioned by the US government. To cite one specific example, the index includes China’s state -owned Aviation Industry Corporation. This firm is the sole supplier of military aircraft to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Federal employee money is being used to support an adversary, undermining the country’s national security and fueling China’s economic growth.

A group of lawmakers introduced bipartisan, bicameral legislation to ban the investment of Thrift Savings Plan funds in securities listed on mainland China exchanges. Pushing back, the board’s general counsel said that the 1986 legislation that created the plan shows the accounts are private, not federal property.

“The employees owns it and it cannot be tampered with by any entity including Congress,” the general counsel went on to say, neglecting to mention the fund consists of taxpayer money, not private capital.

This decision is another egregious example of an organization facing no consequences for refusing to act in the best interests of the United States and never having to say you are sorry. It’s bad for the United States and good for a strategic foreign adversary.

COVID-19 is another gift from the Chinese Communist Party

Many of the world’s recent pandemics have been traced to China: the Asian Flu in 1956, the Hong Kong Flu in 1968, SARS in 2002, and the Swine Flu in 2009. Now COVID-19 is another gift from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

COVID-19 is believed to have originated at a wet market in Wuhan, China. Wet markets are a cross between a zoo and a slaughterhouse. They put people in constant contact with both live and dead animals, including illegal wildlife. That makes it easy for diseases to be transmitted to humans.

According to a study published by the University of Southampton in England, if CCP authorities had disclosed the outbreak of the COVID 19 virus three weeks earlier, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by up to 95 percent, thereby mitigating the global public health crisis.

A timeline of the early weeks of the outbreak developed by the American news website Axios shows a cover up by CCP officials. This allowed the virus to spread unchecked in Wuhan for weeks, including among the five million city residents who left going to all points of the compass without being screened, leading to a national epidemic, and inevitably to its global spread.

That should come as no surprise. CCP officials prioritize stability – even if it means suppressing information the public needs to know and threatening public health.

CCP leadership covered up the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak for over a month after it emerged in 2002. Even as the virus spread CCP officials continued to undercount cases and delayed reporting information. They did not alert the World Health Organization until February 2003.

United States National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said China’s cover up “probably cost the world community two months to respond,” exacerbating the pandemic. As the current outbreak has shown, an infectious disease that starts in one part of the world can spread to others in virtually no time.

So it came as no surprise that on March 17 the CCP said it would expel journalists from The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The New York Times. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the three American outlets, plus Voice of America and Time Magazine, would be designated as “foreign missions” and must report information about their staff, finance, operations and real estate in China.

The CCP’s aggressive and highly centralized propaganda machine continues to sow doubt about COVID 19′s origin. Zhao Lijian a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said, “It might be the U.S. Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Chinese diplomats are pushing the narrative that China’s response bought precious time for and made important contributions to other countries’ epidemic prevention and control. They claim China is ready to share its experience and research with countries where the disease is spreading as well as to export face masks, pharmaceutical products, and other medical supplies for which it is the dominant global supplier.

If China decided to ban such exports to the United States, the state-run news agency Xinhua noted, the United States would be “plunged into a mighty sea of coronavirus.” Last year, prominent Chinese economist Li Daokui suggested curtailing active pharmaceutical ingredient exports to the United States as a countermeasure in the trade war. His comments validated those made by Gary Cohn, former chief economic advisor to President Trump: “If you’re the Chinese and you want to… destroy us, just stop sending us antibiotics.”

Having made much of the developed world dependent on China, and because of the country’s economic and military power, the CCP will likely avoid censure or sanctions for its role in the pandemic.

Perhaps it is time to get Greta Thunberg on the case to call out the CCP, hold them responsible for COVID-19 and raise the issue of decoupling the West from China.

Afghanistan: another mission failure

More than 18 years since President George W. Bush ordered bombing in response to the 9/11 attacks, America’s “forever war” in Afghanistan may finally be nearing an end. The United States signed a dicey deal with the Taliban on February 29 amid upbeat rhetoric to end the war and lead to the withdrawal of American forces.

The peace is fragile. To make it work, the Taliban and the Afghan government negotiate the political terms for ending the war and sharing power.

Afghanistan is but one of a string of dicey foreign entanglements that mark U.S. policy since the end of the Cold War America’s longest war came at a tremendous cost of blood and treasure. By the numbers, it claimed the lives of more than 2,300 American soldiers, and 20,000 more have been injured. Tens of thousands of Afghans have been killed. It has cost U.S. taxpayers $2 trillion, according to Brown University’s Cost of War Project.

Since the disappearance of the existential threat of a nuclear-armed Soviet Union in 1991, the United States has indulged a missionary calling to remake the world in its image. It has ranged far and wide to export American values: Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and the beat goes on.

In the decades before the Cold War ended, the United States used its military and economic power to defend American interests at home and abroad. America’s desire to remake the world in its image was held in check by the existence of a powerful geopolitical rival: The Soviet Union.

When the fall of the Berlin Wall ended the Cold War, the American political establishment believed it had prevailed in a cosmic struggle with communism. The United States could bask in its new role as the world’s sole superpower. It was perched at the pinnacle of power.

History had validated American-style liberal democratic capitalism. Political scientist Francis Fukuyama argued that humanity had reached its final stage: liberal capitalist democracy. The world was witnessing the End of History. He predicted that unipolar American influence would bring lasting world peace. The U.S. had no major existential threats and everything seemed possible. The future looked bright.

This was a seismic event, yet there was no debate about America’s role in world affairs. Instead, the United States under three presidents chose to pursue a policy of promoting American values as universal values, what some have described as “missionary work” or, alternatively, “nation building” – using American power to reshape domestic institutions in foreign lands, regardless of whether American interests were at stake.

This foreign policy shift was embraced by both political parties. The post-Cold War presidencies of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama wandered into well-intentioned but clueless adventures in nation building, most of which have turned out badly. Elites had their heads up their hindquarters.

But it was in Afghanistan and Iraq that the notion of nation building became the ultimate policy objective. The Bush crowd, with extravagant hubris and ignorant of local conditions, thought that such transformations were feasible with limited resources. The United States failed to achieve a decisive victory in either war.

It is ironic that because the United States is so powerful and intrinsically secure, it has the freedom to wander around the world intruding in various places. The outcomes don’t have a decisive impact on American security, even if things go as badly as in the Vietnam debacle.

But the emergence of China as a global superpower and the reemergence of Russia have put an end to that post-Cold War world. Truth be told, the United States no longer has the power to make unilateral changes in other political cultures.

On the other hand, Americans can take comfort in the German statesman Otto Bismarck’s reputed comment that “There appears to be a special providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States of America.” Hopefully that is true.

Metro Transport Corporations: A New Model for Managing the Surface Transportation Revolution

Abstract: The benefits of a coming revolution that will be marked by the rise of shared, electric autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the transition from vehicle ownership to a transportation-as-a-service model can only be captured if the transformation is properly managed. To maximize these potential benefits, we propose replacing traditional departments of transportation with quasi-public or quasi-private Metro Transport Corporations that would oversee all surface transportation in a metropolitan area.

Maximizing economic, environmental and quality-of-life benefits will require putting customers first, traditionally not an area in which government agencies excel. It will necessitate culture changes that may well be beyond the grasp of political leaders, bureaucrats and unions that too often view transportation agencies first and foremost as a source of jobs.

Under our proposal, municipalities would deed their transportation assets to the Metro Transport Corporations in exchange for ownership shares. The public sector would continue to hold the largest share, but would be joined by two other classes of owners: companies such logistics and retail companies, as well as banks, whose success is heavily dependent on rising levels of economic activity in the region, and investors simply seeking dividend income.